Referendum for War, Conscription for Peace

Current Problems

Paradox of Security

The paradox of a traditional national defense is that it requires maintaining a strong offensive military. This same strength can threaten rivals and cause them to develop their own offensive military capabilities as deterrence. This undermines your own national security calculations and leads to military buildups on both sides. This dynamic has historically played out many times. The resulting military arms races and military buildups have often ended in war and mass death.

Building and maintaining a strong military creates problems that can undermine long term national security. Even if war is avoided, economic resources are increasingly diverted from productive activities to building up military hardware, infrastructure, and training. In the long term this slows economic innovation and productivity in the rest of the economy. This undermines the long-term security of the nation as it falls behind its rivals across multiple dimensions.

Maintaining a large military takes resources away from other economic activities. This reduces both long-term economic growth and the resources available for public goods such as education and healthcare. Undermining the health and education of societies gradually reduces their capacity for productivity and inventiveness. This slows technological development and reduces productive capacity. Countries that invest more in their citizens are better at growing their economic capacity and advancing their technology.

Power Corrupts

Military strength provides power, but power corrupts. Power is addictive and people are driven to maintain it at all costs. People in power are self-righteous and hypocritically engage in moral exceptionalism. Power decreases empathy and compassion for others. It hinders cooperation and taking the perspectives of others. It promotes unethical behaviour and a sense of entitlement. Power leads to selective information processing and judgment biases. It leads to overconfidence and disinhibited behaviour. It increases aggressive and dehumanizing behaviour.

When a country thinks itself powerful, its decision-makers are affected by these psychological forces. The longer the country is powerful, measured in generations, the more these effects become evident in each successive generation. Each generation tends to make bad decisions more often. National leaders gradually behave less respectfully when dealing with other countries. When combined with belligerent national actions this makes allies less committed. It makes neutral countries view the nation negatively, and it makes countries that think negatively about the nation into accrual rivals that actively seek to undermine the nation.

Dilemma of Peace

The longer a nation enjoys peace, the more likely each generation questions the necessity of maintaining a large military. Leaders eventually face the dilemma of justifying the substantial military expenditures. These justifications often take the form of stoking fears of rivals or external threats and getting involved in overseas conflicts. This undermines the peace that most people want, reduces beneficial trade relationships, and requires dedicating even more resources to military operations. Countries that maintain a large military often end up using it and redirecting resources away from other economic activities.

Proposed Solutions

Referendum to Deploy Externally

Deploying military forces to a foreign country must require a national referendum. This must be a requirement for all foreign combat deployments. Going to war as a nation, sending a small military taskforce, joining an internationally sanctioned peacekeeping mission, or sending forces to assist other nations with a natural disaster must all require a referendum. Any exceptions to requiring a referendum could be abused by decision makers for personal gain or to appease their supporters.

Politicians, whether heads of state or in legislative bodies, must not be able to decide whether a nation deploys its military. The population will bear the costs of military operations in the form of taxes, or their lives, and they must collectively make the decision.

If deployment to a military conflict is approved with a referendum, it must be re-approved with a referendum at least every two years. This allows the population to re-evaluate the situation and change their minds if appropriate. Requiring national referendums to deploy military forces makes it less likely that nations go to war unnecessarily. It also makes it less likely that any conflicts will drag on for too long.

Voting in referendums to decide on military actions must be compulsory. Voluntary voting often means the lowest socioeconomic groups will vote less frequently. These groups end up disproportionately risking their lives in frontline military positions. This disconnection between who votes and who dies in conflicts weakens the legitimacy of the political system. It is also fundamentally unfair that rich people send poor people off to fight to protect their wealth. This undermines social cohesiveness, institutional trust, compliance with the rule of law, and the long-term stability of the system. Having a compulsory referendum is essential because it ensures most of the population genuinely supports any military action.

No Referendum for Internal Defense

Defense of internal national territory must not require a referendum. If national territory is attacked, a country must be able to defend itself swiftly and decisively without recourse to a timely referendum.

National territory must be defined across land, water, and air spaces. The boundaries of national territory must be internationally acknowledged and widely endorsed. This makes it clear when enemy military forces enter national territory.

Attacks on any installations or equipment located within foreign borders, such as diplomatic embassies or naval vessels, must not count as an attack on national territory. Otherwise, it risks allowing a military reaction without requiring a referendum. Combat deployment outside national territory for any reason must always require a compulsory referendum.  Any defensive action must keep all forces within the predefined national territory.

If long-range attacks come from outside national territory a referendum is not required to act militarily to stop those attacks. For example, if national territory is attacked with missiles or artillery coming from outside that territory.

However, any defensive military operations outside national territory must be strictly limited to destroying just the hardware needed to launch the long-range attacks. Where possible they should be executed using long range hardware rather than sending in ground forces. The aim is to limit loss of life on both sides and avoid undertaking military invasions and occupations. If defensive operations to stop long range attacks last longer than one month they must require a referendum to continue. This allows countries to defend themselves if attacked, but these kinds of attacks must not be preemptive. The enemy must attack first in these situations. This avoids being responsible for starting an avoidable conflict.

Alliances Only with Referendum Countries

Countries requiring referendums for external deployments should only form alliances with other countries that have the same requirement. This helps avoid the risk of getting drawn into conflicts by a non-referendum ally that is belligerent and confrontational. Political elites in allied countries without a referendum requirement could provoke external rivals and start a conflict. Allied countries would then be required to assist in military operations to honor the alliance agreement. Avoiding alliances with non-referendum countries will help avoid getting drawn into external conflicts.

Making an alliance must require a referendum. Undoing an alliance must also require a referendum. But once an alliance is formed a referendum is not required to deploy to the ally’s territory. But only to their territory. This keeps the commitment more credible and avoids the possibility of the population voting not to help defend an ally.

However, the ally must formally request and invite military assistance. This formality ensures better cooperation and avoids unnecessarily getting involved in conflicts. But the same rules of self-defence apply, and the military cannot be deployed to invade another country.

No Referendum for Internal Defense of Allies

Defence of any allied home territory should not require a referendum. Allowing for the automatic defence of allied home territory provides the necessary level of deterrence to make alliances effective.

This should not cover attacks on allied installations or equipment located within other foreign borders. The risk is that such allowances would make it too easy to trigger a non-referendum alliance response. Countries that require a referendum to deploy forces externally will tend to be less belligerent and confrontational. This means there is less risk of getting drawn into unnecessary conflicts by forming alliances with these countries.

Allies may be threatened or attacked by belligerent rivals and need assistance. Countries must then be able to act decisively and quickly to defend the home territory of their allies.

A condition of any alliance is that military forces can only be deployed to the home territory of the alliance partner. It can be defended in the same way as home territory, meaning attacks on any hardware launching long range attack from outside the territory is permissible. Special covert operations aimed simply at destroying hardware launching attacks would only be used as a last resort if long range responses failed to neutralize attacks on the ally’s national territory.

The alliance conditions must specify that supplied allied forces cannot enter external territory. They can secure and defend the allies’ home territory while the ally uses its own forces to prevent those long-range attacks.

Compulsory Military Service

Everyone of working age must do one year of military training. Most people would be required to do so after completing secondary school. People who leave secondary school would do their year of military training at the same age as everyone who graduates.

Immigrants of working age that become citizens must do the initial year of military training within the first three years of being naturalized.

Anyone physically unable but mentally capable to serve would receive parallel military training for roles to which they are suited. This includes roles such as coordination, administration, strategy, planning, remote piloting, security monitoring, signals intelligence, analysis, and secretarial positions. Conscientious objectors to military service will still need to complete training and serve in support roles.

The military must find appropriate training and tasks for anyone seeking to be disqualified for emotional, physical, mental, religious, medical, or other reasons. It must be near impossible to avoid service so that all citizens participate. The bar for exemption must be exceptionally high for working aged people, such as being terminally ill or in a coma. The intention is for everyone to be able to contribute to national security if needed. This also binds citizens together and will help make society more harmonious internally. People will be forced to cooperate and work alongside people they would not normally meet. They will come to understand others’ perspectives and understand common bonds.

There must be a requirement for refresher training at least every five years. This training can be of shorter duration. It is intended to make sure people do not forget essential skills and learn to use the latest military hardware and technology. Everyone must do refresher training throughout their working age years. It must be adjusted for changing ages and abilities as people progress through life. The intention is for the whole population to be ready to defend the nation.

Permanent Professional Military

The nation must maintain a core permanent professional military of sufficient size to be a short-term deterrent against attack. Their size must be enough to make potential rivals question the wisdom of invading, but not so large that rivals feel threatened by their existence. A permanent professional military would be responsible for initial and ongoing military training of citizens. Professional military staff would need to keep up with the latest military knowledge, train using the newest military technology, and maintain their skills so they are well prepared. This ensures professional military staff can train citizens in the latest strategies and technologies.

Maintain Production Capacity

Nations should prioritize maintaining production capacity over maintaining large stockpiles of military equipment. This helps ensure national security while avoiding arms races and military buildups that can escalate into conflict. The ability to produce military hardware is not as threatening to rivals as actually having that military hardware ready to deploy.

Production facilities must be geographically dispersed across the country in hardened locations. For example, deep underground or inside mountains. Sufficient supplies and raw resources to start production immediately must be stored on site. These must be periodically replaced to ensure the available supplies are fit for purpose when needed. Old supplies can be repurposed for other economic activities.

Production facilities must be connected using multiple redundant supply lines with the fewest possible vulnerabilities such as bridges. The country must maintain excess military production capacity. This makes it difficult for rivals to destroy or undermine production capacity before invading. It also enables the country to produce hardware at the same rate it is destroyed in combat.

Production facilities must be regularly upgraded so they can produce the most technologically advanced equipment. The priority should be on maintaining modern production facilities and prototypes rather than maintaining stockpiles of modern military equipment. This will save resources in the long term and make those resources available for other economic activities.

Military factories will produce at rates far below capacity and employ far fewer staff during peacetime. They will be focused on slowly producing functioning prototypes and advancing their designs. Maintaining a core active staff helps maintain the production knowledge and skills necessary to train additional staff if production levels need to be increased.

The permanent professional military will use the equipment when training citizens as part of their compulsory military service. One of the options for people who do not want to serve in the military should be to do their training in military production capacity. This will help maintain a pool of skilled workers to draw upon during a mobilization. The aim is to have the capacity to rapidly increase production of the most modern military equipment.

Considerations

Military Research and Development

Sufficient resources must be dedicated to maintaining a technologically advanced military. This may not be possible for smaller or poorer countries, who must either pool resources with other small allies or outsource to friendly nations with the capacity. This comes with inherent risks and is a suboptimal solution. It entails subsidizing another nation’s research and development. It is also unlikely that even a friendly nation will sell their latest models and technology. It will likely restrict the most modern equipment to ensure its own national security advantage. Technology plays a decisive role in military affairs and countries cannot afford to fall behind because their national security will suffer.

Peacekeeping Missions

Sending forces on internationally sanctioned peacekeeping missions must require a referendum. This prevents peacekeeping being a loophole through which societies are manipulated into belligerent military actions.

In addition, peacekeeping missions must first be approved by a vote of all members of the international community. This ensures a degree of legitimacy for the deployment and reduces the risk of international reprisals.

Participating in peacekeeping missions provides the military with valuable real-world experience. Veterans from these missions will make national defence forces more capable and the training they pass on to others will be more effective.

Peacekeeping missions are not the same as internally defending national territory. For this reason, citizens must volunteer to serve on peacekeeping missions and cannot be coerced or required to deploy.

Training Exercises with Allies

Practicing simulated military exercises with allies is essential to maintain effectiveness. Referendums should not be required for training exercises even if they occur in allied foreign territory. They must be genuine training exercises and not involve actual combat.

The aim of requiring referendums for external combat is to prevent belligerent actions against rival nations, so the military may not get many opportunities for gaining combat experience. This is why frequent and varied practice military exercises are necessary. A credible deterrence requires the military to be effective and recognized as capable of inflicting catastrophic damage upon potential attacking forces.

Natural Disaster Responses

Military forces are uniquely prepared to assist with many types of natural disasters. Responding to international natural disasters should not require a referendum, but it must require an official invitation from the other nation. People must volunteer to participate in any international disaster response. These responses cannot take offensive military hardware and are primarily logistics and medical or support operations.

The military has the equipment necessary for large-scale logistics operations over difficult territory. This helps when distributing food, water, medicine, temporary shelters, and other emergency supplies to affected regions. This is practice for distributing ammunition and combat supplies. The military can help conduct large scale evacuations when necessary. This is practice for mass mobilization and deployments.

The hierarchical organizational structure of militaries enables making quick decisions and responding decisively to changing circumstances. This is practice for combat operations. Military communication systems are designed to function independently over difficult terrain. This facilitates coordinating emergency responses when the electrical and communication grids may be damaged or overwhelmed. This is again a test for systems vital during combat. Natural disaster responses provide an opportunity to ensure national security while gaining valuable experience carrying out key military functions.